The Point of No Return

Barring a serious injury, there is no looking back. I have started putting together ideas for my plan of recording a training idea for each of the 100 days (which starts June 7th) leading up to my race in September at the AC100.

After completing my 50 mile qualifier and sending in my check, the only thing I have to do is fulfill my 8 hour trail maintenance service and run, run, and run.

I normally do not keep an accurate count of my weekly mileage, but I plan to start. If anyone who wants to run their first 100 mile race ever reads my 100 day countdown I want them to see what my weekly mileage is like in order to maintain a comparison. I ran for the first time yesterday evening for 8 miles (since my ankle injury at Leona) so I figure it is as good a time as any to start keeping track. Along with my ankle about healed, my poison oak is also healing up as well (I may not have mentioned that earlier).

The results were posted yesterday on the Leona Divide site and I came in 54th out of 137 finishers, with a time of 10:01:17. Although I had hoped to do better I think it is more of a motivator and will give me a little more push. I don't know if other middle of the pack runners like myself do this, but I was comparing times from people that ran in Leona and last year's AC100 to get a comparison of my time and proportional amount. Although the data I entered is minimal, I still think the results are interesting.

Data I Entered from Leona ('97) and AC100 ('96)

------Leona / AC100
KH 7:57:10 / 20:35:49
GM 7:35:22 / 21:05:25
BP 7:26:52 / 23:32:13
RM 9:57:23 / 25:14:47
DO 11:56:02 / 26:27:18
LC 10:29:53 / 28:20:51
AK 9:25:46 / 30:19:37
XW 11:14:05 / 31:03:45
LD 11:08:49 / 32:27:25
CJ 10:01:17 ----- ? ----

Running a Linear Regression (this is a mathematical estimate see line in graph above) the linear equation comes out to be y = 1.93x + 7.6 which projects me to have a time of 26:54. (it's what math teachers do for fun) . I have heard that a good estimate is to multiply your 50 mile time by 2.7 and that is a good estimate of your 100 mile time. Although variables of difficulty would definitely be a factor, it turns out that my estimate of 26:54 is pretty close to right on the 2.7 times mark.

This is in itself a motivator to me, since I perceive ultra running to be competition within myself and I now have a time I am racing to beat.